Ask HN: Your predictions for 2018?
Similar to the previous years, predict what will happen in the next year. Please use lists instead of paragraphs. This is open for any kind of predictions (tech, politics, finance...)
2017: none?
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2013: none?
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
Predictions for 2018:
- It will be a busy year for crypto, if only by the amount of ICOs that launched in 2017. 2018 we will have more and (I'm hoping) an increase in the number of mature Dapp in the market. - We will have a big Bitcoin crash, there will be a drastic correction on the price of crypto, specially when you look at what might be driving the current raise in value for Bitcoin.
- AR will gain traction and 2018 and become mainstream. VR will still be years away from being common place.
More: https://hackernoon.com/5-trends-to-watch-out-on-2018-e9db731...
> We will have a big Bitcoin crash, there will be a drastic correction on the price of crypto, specially when you look at what might be driving the current raise in value for Bitcoin.
What do you think is driving the uptrend?
Right now Bitcoin value is purely based on speculation, and interestingly enough the more the price of Bitcoin increases the less usable it becomes as a payment method.
Also there is some concerns that the bitcoin price is being artificially inflated by the people behind Tether, here is some related reading:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/mystery-s... - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129543-bitcoin-one-way-go-...
Was reading more into Tether and I thought this was interesting: Tether Default Swaps
https://www.reddit.com/r/Tether/comments/7lx3bw/introducing_...
> Right now Bitcoin value is purely based on speculation
That isn't factual. Analysts have found an almost perfect correlation between new wallets growth and btc's price. Transaction clearing delays will be fixed. Give it time.
> Analysts have found an almost perfect correlation between new wallets growth and btc's price.
The question here (at least to me), is what all those new wallets are doing with their bitcoin, what percentage of the community is actually using bitcoin as a currency vs an "investment" and they are just holding.
Now, this doesn't mean that I don't believe in Bitcoin or Blockchain tech for that matter, quite the opposite.
Right now high fees are halting usability. But LN should ease that and encourage wallet owner to transact more.
Bold Predictions with no repercussions for being wrong:
- Crypto market cap breaks 1.2 trillion USD (50 billion usd per month increase).
- Cryptos without working software keep on increasing. Its the new "Don't monetize".
- Major data leaks continue in every industry, almost nobody cares.
- Dow Jones 30k
- Canadian PM steps down due to ethics violations.
> Cryptos without working software keep on increasing. Its the new "Don't monetize".
Care to elaborate are you referring to ICOs without an actual working Dapp?
> Canadian PM steps down due to ethics violations.
Lol, unlikely to happen.
2017 was pretty quiet, so we are probably on a verge of something spectacular.
- Good batteries or small autonomous power sources is what we really-really need now, so I'd expect that in the first place.
- More advances in the area of AI creativity. Music and paintings are already scary good.
- Biohacking enthusiasts are about to bring in something really valueable.
> Biohacking enthusiasts are about to bring in something really valueable.
Have any more details? or links?
- We’re gonna get close to full self driving, and maybe reach it.
- A bit closer to AR and VR, but it’ll take a few years (4-6) before we hit early mainstream.
- I think we’re at peak wearable, but I could be surprised.
Brasil will win World Cup 2018 :)