Oil futures are absolutely a real asset - this isn’t Kalshi “who wins an Oscar” junk. Oil futures let consumers like airlines hedge prices, so their role in price discovery and liquidity is important.
When we had that oil glut years ago and traders couldn’t unload their futures, they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it, causing a mad scramble to figure out what to do with it when storage started running out.
I think it’s fake. Brokers don’t allow retail investors to keep those contracts anymore unless they come with a warrant (i.e. precious metals stored in some COMEX vault). They will auto-liquidate positions well before first notice day unless you’ve already got documentation for a slot at Cushing.
Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.
> Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals?
Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor.
As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals.
That was my first thought, but it's also possible that diplomatic partners like Pakistan (and through them, the US) get notification of impending announcements. idk if Iranian government insiders/diplomats are legally able to trade futures due to sanctions.
>> Investors placed a bet
Aren't these more of gamblers?. There is no real asset they are investing in.
Oil futures are absolutely a real asset - this isn’t Kalshi “who wins an Oscar” junk. Oil futures let consumers like airlines hedge prices, so their role in price discovery and liquidity is important.
When we had that oil glut years ago and traders couldn’t unload their futures, they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it, causing a mad scramble to figure out what to do with it when storage started running out.
> they found out the hard way that futures meant they were legally obligated to take delivery of real oil and store it
Sometimes, even average(ly stupid) people end up discovering this too:
r/wallstreetbets - 7d ago - Anyone know how I can cancel this? I dont want it - https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1siq4m2/any...
I think it’s fake. Brokers don’t allow retail investors to keep those contracts anymore unless they come with a warrant (i.e. precious metals stored in some COMEX vault). They will auto-liquidate positions well before first notice day unless you’ve already got documentation for a slot at Cushing.
Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals? Would love AI to do that.
Yes, if the SEC decides to they can trace it back to specific orders.
Will the SEC decide to?
The orders are coming from… inside the house??
CFTC, SEC does not regulate commodities but securities.
SEC could find out because of the ETFs that trade the same underlying assets
Since it's commodities it would be the CFTC, but it would be trivial since brokers are required by law to collect KYC information on all futures trades and anyone holding positions above the Large Trader Reporting threshold (a few hundred contracts for crude) is already disclosed to the CFTC by name. 7,990 lots of Brent in a one minute window is enormously above that threshold.
I would love it if real people did that, and then acted on what they found with moral integrity.
> Is it possible to trace this stuff back to individuals?
Yes, depending where the trades were based and their market participants' KYC rigor.
As the article mentions, the CFTC "is examining a series of trades in oil futures placed shortly before major shifts in President Donald Trump's Iran war policy" [1]. If the "lots of Brent crude futures" the article mentioned traded on the Intercontinental Exchange [2], when we can almost certainly trace it back to at least some individuals.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-probes-suspicious...
[2] https://www.ice.com/products/219/Brent-Crude-Futures/data
Why AI? You want tracker that dont hallucinate.
But, you also need DOJ that prosecutes rich guy white crime, so.
Would love human with brain to do that.
Why would AI be part of that process?
This article is subscription-only for me. Anyone have a link?
Bets placed on misinformation spread on a friday that's outdated by saturday morning. Turning into a weekend tradition at this point..
If this trade is based on inside information, it would be on the Iranian side since it's timed on the IRGC's X post.
That seems like a smart move by Iran. Get rich off your own announcements.
That was my first thought, but it's also possible that diplomatic partners like Pakistan (and through them, the US) get notification of impending announcements. idk if Iranian government insiders/diplomats are legally able to trade futures due to sanctions.