The unemployment rate today is divorced from the reality of how hard it actually is to get a job. Before 2009, †he average unemployed person spent less time unemployed before their next job at a 10% unemployment rate, than the average unemployed person today at 4.2% unemployment. https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-bridge-for-workers-act-ge...
If doing a gig app job full time doesn't count you as unemployed, I think that's a decent explanation for those numbers. Those jobs can be gotten by anyone with a car, but a job with a formal employment agreement and benefits is still difficult to get.
Interesting (pun intended) to me that apparently everyone wants to talk about the rate speculation, rather than about the finding that jobs are picking up in spite of AI.
These could be jobs that are just not as exposed to AI augmentation/automation?
I'm pretty strongly opinionated on AI eventually taking any job that derives value by using a computer, but its pretty obvious its strongest PMF right now is in the software industry. Headcount across high-tech companies are certainly flat/down. This is only a small portion of the overall job market though.
> rather than about the finding that jobs are picking up in spite of AI.
We are years too early to determine if AI is removing jobs. AI still hasnt really decided what it wants to be yet. Were just in LLM land with bolt ons currently. Once we get hyperfocused models based on industry specific tasks that can run locally then we start to see the jobs fall.
there are sooo many jobs AI cannot yet automate--things like service sector work, blue collar jobs, or individualized services. Many white-collar jobs involve coordination and dealing with edge cades. Things like insurance or advertising require having to meet clients' unique needs or have to deal with counterparties, like with law. An insurance company does not pay out--you are not going to resolve this with AI.
Most job growth for the past several years has been in the private education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and construction sectors. Removing these sectors makes job growth negative for 2024 and 2025, and wipes out the majority of job growth in 2026. See https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/spotl... . These sectors are harder to automate with AI compared to white collar office jobs, which have seen major losses.
https://archive.is/FKTT5
And yet the average number of weeks spent unemployed is going up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UEMPMEAN
The unemployment rate today is divorced from the reality of how hard it actually is to get a job. Before 2009, †he average unemployed person spent less time unemployed before their next job at a 10% unemployment rate, than the average unemployed person today at 4.2% unemployment. https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-bridge-for-workers-act-ge...
Companies are sooo choosy for even the most mundane of jobs. You need 10 years experience and 2 degrees to wait tables.
This is only going to get 10X worth with AI enabling domain expertise while devaluing general and technical knowledge
If you haven't found your niche yet, you'll be relegated to "warm body" roles.
Clearly, some people are getting hired. A good number of them.
Maybe it’s job sector rotation.
One possibility is that the long right tail is pulling the average up as individuals in the left tail find new jobs and are removed from the average.
If doing a gig app job full time doesn't count you as unemployed, I think that's a decent explanation for those numbers. Those jobs can be gotten by anyone with a car, but a job with a formal employment agreement and benefits is still difficult to get.
Interesting (pun intended) to me that apparently everyone wants to talk about the rate speculation, rather than about the finding that jobs are picking up in spite of AI.
> everyone wants to talk about the rate speculation, rather than about the finding that jobs are picking up in spite of AI.
The Economist had an article early September "The jobs apocalypse is postponed. An AI jobs boom is here" - https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/09/04/t...
These could be jobs that are just not as exposed to AI augmentation/automation?
I'm pretty strongly opinionated on AI eventually taking any job that derives value by using a computer, but its pretty obvious its strongest PMF right now is in the software industry. Headcount across high-tech companies are certainly flat/down. This is only a small portion of the overall job market though.
… Sorry, "PMF"?
Product Market Fit (of AI) is highest in software development.
No no, probability mass function, of course.
Do you have access to Google?
> rather than about the finding that jobs are picking up in spite of AI.
We are years too early to determine if AI is removing jobs. AI still hasnt really decided what it wants to be yet. Were just in LLM land with bolt ons currently. Once we get hyperfocused models based on industry specific tasks that can run locally then we start to see the jobs fall.
there are sooo many jobs AI cannot yet automate--things like service sector work, blue collar jobs, or individualized services. Many white-collar jobs involve coordination and dealing with edge cades. Things like insurance or advertising require having to meet clients' unique needs or have to deal with counterparties, like with law. An insurance company does not pay out--you are not going to resolve this with AI.
Most job growth for the past several years has been in the private education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and construction sectors. Removing these sectors makes job growth negative for 2024 and 2025, and wipes out the majority of job growth in 2026. See https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/spotl... . These sectors are harder to automate with AI compared to white collar office jobs, which have seen major losses.
The initial report is not worth responding to since the error rate is so high, +/- 122,000.
What you're reading in this Bloomberg report is an expectation of an employment gain of -57,000 to +187,000.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
The US has had robust economic stats lately, too.
A rate hike seems like a strong possibility. The specter of higher inflation looms.
On what planet has the US had robust economic stats ?
Planet Trump.