The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing. If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, and stock market indices?
I could hedge it at the blackjack table too -- that doesn't make a blackjack hand a financial asset. I'm talking about whether the instrument itself is backed by something of inherent value.
You could buy a stock expecting asset appreciation, but the stock itself is a certificate of ownership in a business. Even a derivative of this, like options trading, is a contract to buy or sell or deliver said certificate of ownership in a business. Ultimately it is backed by something of tangible value.
"Predictions markets" are all of the mechanics of trading, but without any underlying value. It is literally gambling wearing Groucho glasses. The bet is simply for the sake of the bet.
Stock trading isn't gambling. It's just owning assets that can change in value. Options trading is much closer to gambling, and I would say the biggest difference between it and Kalshi and similar gambling companies is that it's much more rigorously (if nowhere near perfectly) regulated.
Both have risk associated with them yes, one has oversight from the goverment and the other is a game / world event.
With stocks if I try to do insider trading I run the risk of Jail time. Or if I try to do a Pump and Dump scheme, I go to jail. If I am an person and I "place a bet on polymarket/kalshi" and then go and influence that outcome. It may not be illegal. Since these markets commodify literally any event, its impossible to control the items themselves. So the markets need to be controlled.
But oversight from the government could change tomorrow. The definition of something shouldn't hinge on what the government thinks it is. The government's definition should be based in something meaningful.
The differences between "gambling on sports" and "a contract on the end results of a sports game" is the same as the difference between "driving a car" and a sovereign citizen's "traveling in a conveyance". You are playing semantic games for what are the same substance. You are conflating the issue of sports gambling (which is what the law suit is about) with interest rates and saying that it's all gambling/stock market. It's not cute or logical.
>If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions,
Easy. Financial instruments are used to tune the resource allocation in capitalism. Gambling however is used to have fun with an idea of getting free money. As such, one is at odds with the religious beliefs based on not having fun for no good reason.
Are you actually asking, or sea-lioning? I can't imagine anyone comparing these two whom has even a cursory understand of financial markets and gambling. Unless one has interests in gambling companies? Or do you gamble a lot and want to keep it legal? Why frame your question this way? Judge gambling on its merits, for which there clearly isn't any outside of entertainment.
Like, at least try to put effort to the comment to show you thought about it beyond the obvious propaganda of gambling companies. What, specifically, is the same? Why arent the differences important?
The apps know who the whales are. They make up 90% of their revenue. Ban them from taking money from whales, and the problem evaporates back to harmless $20 fun.
How to do this? Demand proof of income or assets and rent above $2000 in bets made in one year. Then audit these companies to ensure they are banning problem gamblers. If they are gambling or losing more than 5% of their net worth/income, that is a whale and they need to be play within their limits or get banned.
This is trivial to do, including at casinos. No one wants to do this because those companies have interests and that means their $100B+ scam industry is gone.
Having worked briefly in ads targeting, a big issue you'll face is that for every whale for whom this is a massive life problem, there's a whale who is just ~rich and this is their hobby.
I actually had a colleague who was a whale. Spent about $30k/yr on mobile games. He was staff level and made like $350k, single guy, so while it was hard for me to understand, it's also hard to say he was being duped or something. He just really liked the games, liked cosmetics, and liked to "support the devs".
These whales will be pissed if you ban them. Why should they be banned from their hobby because someone else can't be personally responsible?
The GP said "Demand proof of income or assets", so a 'whale' for whom $3000 a week is pocket change would still be free to squander it. There are already laws which require individual investors in private startups to show $1M in assets but online sports books and casinos are largely free to prey on gambling addicts.
These companies post little notices like "Addicted to Gambling? Click here for help" but then relentlessly optimize dark patterns in their apps to target and trigger addicts. Search and you'll find lots of documented evidence of shockingly abusive tactics.
Will never happen because state lotteries depend on whales just like all other gambling operations. You think the guy at the Quick-E-Mart buying $200 of scratch-off or Powerball tickets has enough income to call that harmless fun?
What was the point of the first two paragraphs? Can you please edit your comment to remove them? They’re not helpful and don’t add anything to the discussion - this is not a venue through which to spread your vitriol
Even if we concede that, Kalshi and Polymarket need to be better regulated with actual laws associated with it, as opposed to the quasi-wild-west thing we have now. I will acknowledge that a lot of trading isn't significantly different than gambling, at least with trading when you do things to purposefully manipulate the market or gamble with non-public information, there's at least an SEC that can investigate, sue, and/or arrest. I'm not claiming it's perfect, but at least there's an attempt to make the markets more fair.
It doesn't really seem like Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly the same regulation. There are plenty of cases where people are purposefully betting on the market when they can easily manipulate the results, with little/no consequences.
I mean, Polymarket ran this ad during the World Series that all but encouraged using the platform to trade on insider information: https://youtu.be/x6I-ZS8hZUg
I guess the thin veneer of deniability here is that the whistleblower isn’t shown actively trading on the information lol.
Stocks are backed by something real (in general). There's a business. That business can't just manufacture new stock out of thin air without going through a regulatory process to do so and the total number of shares is publicly known.
Furthermore the institutions that allow you to trade mostly aren't taking positions on the stock price and in theory there are jail-time consequences if they cheat. In practice that isn't always the case but at least there is some limit to what they can do to screw over their customers.
These contract markets have absolutely none of that. If they decide to take up positions to stuff their own pockets you probably wouldn't even know it and it wouldn't be illegal either. They can make up contracts for anything and everything without limit. If they aren't front-running their own customers then they're idiots because that's free money. And they can just lie about the odds as they like so if bets aren't going the way they want just tip the scales.
Oh and they have absolute control over whether any event counts as success or not and how to handle edge cases. There's no one you can appeal to.
Maybe they operate above-board in all aspects. Maybe they don't. No one really knows.
IDK of anything more backing the derivatives than the funds of the bettors, and the guy with the hot-air gun heating up the official thermometer at the Paris airport... [0]
You make an interesting point, I think it boils down to two primary distinctions:
1. Purpose: derivatives serve primarily as risk management instruments. Gambling serves pure profit and entertainment.
2. Topics: derivatives focus financial assets, commodities and economic risk. Gambling focuses on micro, generally sports, events.
Obviously you could make an argument that both instruments can be used for both purposes.
If I'm a worker at a football team who's job depends on my team qualifying to the Uefa Champions League, betting on my team not making it can be considered risk management.
In the same fashion futures on oil prices can be equally used for pure profit and entertainment purposes.
In the large US professional sports leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB), it's not uncommon for some of the most long-term losing teams to be the most financially profitable.
In the case of the NFL, the league itself is owned equally by each of the 32 teams. They each get a 1/32nd share of league revenue regardless of win/loss. While many costs like player contracts are capped, other costs (like coach contracts) aren't. Since the majority of income is equally split, one way to max profits is to spend less than other teams where they can.
While some choose to engage in equity & commodity trading in a way which is like gambling, that's a secondary use of an economic exchange which still fundamentally results in the transfer of an asset tied to something other than itself.
From the days of "My six sheep for your two cows" to modern derivatives, asset trading markets are useful and necessary for economic exchange, price setting and market clearing in a way that self-referential 'poker chips' are not.
Because financial instruments like stocks are contracts entitling you to future cash flows from the legal entity that issued the stock, and federal securities laws mandate strict disclosure about that entity.
Yes, their value fluctuates on the market from lots of different factors. But the thing you're buying is very real and very well regulated compared to a prediction bet.
> differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing
In part, in part not. Insurance and gambling are inherently similar—they’re both negative-sum games taken alone. (Insurance can become positive sum when one considers what one is protecting.) Investing and gambling are fundamentally different—the former is a positive-sum game.
That doesn’t mean you can’t gamble in the stock-market. Options are, for a non-hedging buyer, negative sum. Someone day trading meme stocks, similarly, would be expected to lose their money in the long run. On the other side, a professional poker player may be able to play a gambling game as a non-gambler.
So no, differences aren’t blurring. But awareness is, and companies like Kalshi are predating on that.
> The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing.
That may just mean you don’t understand the regulations and legal definitions involved. Shares of stock are portions of a company entitling the owner to dividends and possibly influence over company direction. Do shares on Kalshi represent a portion of a company and entitle you to a dividend?
No. So the line remains clear: You are allowed to trade stock as long as you follow the stock trading rules. You are not allowed to trade “Kalshi market shares” unless the rules change. You can say that they should change, but there’s no confusion about what is stock and what is illegal gambling.
Kalshi could perhaps try to list their company on the stock exhange and have the market shares become actual stock somehow, but they’d quickly run afoul of the stock trading rules if they tried to give larger dividends to some shareholders than others based on which markets they’d invested in. It would become an impossible headache, which is why they won’t do it.
I've seen plenty of lawsuits and dirt specifically on Kalshi, but have yet to see one on Polymarket. Is there anything specific states have against Kalshi over other prediction markets, or are they just the first/most prominent of what will be a wave of lawsuits against these kinds of companies generally?
Polymarket does. In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors. It also increases the odds that if you make money you'll actually be able to withdraw it unlike many of these markets. They also operate in actual dollars not make up crypto tokens.
Note that Polymarket's non-US business is crypto blockchain whatever so ... good luck with that. The ability to get your money out could disappear at any time and as far as I know there's no recourse if they just decide to screw you over. Not that CFTC is super effective but it is something.
> In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors
So is Kalshi. The entire question is how the CFTC made up the authority to regulate gambling out of statute that only ever mentions exempted commodities.
I think it might have something to do with the fact that Kalshi is aggressively running ads targeting young men to get them into sports gambling, and Polymarket isn't. (I've never seen them, but my less-technical brother claims he sees them all the time on tiktok and they're particularly sleazy).
Also, more to the point, Polymarket actually does have at least three active lawsuits against it.
edit: looks like this has something to do with it:
> Kalshi has been a CFTC-regulated exchange since 2020. Polymarket exited the US in 2022 after settling charges with the CFTC, and only came back after buying QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, in late 2025.
In some cases, Kalshi brought the lawsuit against the state(s). Others, where the state(s) initiated the action, name Kalshi and not Polymarket because only Kalshi is operating (legally) in US. Polymarket doesn't offer as many markets on its US-facing entity as it does on its main international site, and not exactly sure but I believe they have not included many of the markets on their US site that are causing Kalshi issues here.
The main thing getting Kalshi all the attention from the states is their sports gambling markets. Not sure if polymarket offers those to US.
“Donald Trump Jr was handed about $300,000 worth of equity in Kalshi after joining the prediction market platform as a strategic adviser in early 2025” [1].
If you’re in a state with a Democrat AG which is also pursuing Kalshi in court, look up your state’s bribery laws and see if your AG can open an investigation into criminal conduct under state law.
If their lawyers are at all competent, they structured it so it's not illegal (though it's pretty obviously adjacent to bribery). With both houses of Congress turning blue, I 'predict' they'll dump Don Jr by the end of January to claw back the remaining unvested equity.
I mean, prediction markets are gambling by all accounts, so this should have been expected no? On a personal level I'm really hoping this is the end of the massive rise in "swaps" over the last few years since it's been an obnoxious trend.
Matt Levine wrote about this very thing in a recent Money Stuff (October 12):
"Kalshi gaming regulation
You know what's funny? There is a real legal dispute about whether Kalshi and other prediction markets should be allowed to offer sports bets without complying with state gaming laws. Kalshi and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission take the view that (1) Kalshi is federally regulated by the CFTC, (2) sports bets are "swaps" under federal regulation, (3) federal regulation preempts state gaming regulation, so (4) buzz off, states. Many states disagree, and there has been litigation around the country. (We have talked about this several times.)
Two federal appellate courts have sided with the states, but another has sided with Kalshi. The state that lost that last case (New Jersey) is asking the Supreme Court to review it, and last week 39 states filed a brief supporting New Jersey's request. So did the National Football League. I assume that the Supreme Court will take the case. I have no idea what it will decide. I think this is a tough question, courts have disagreed on the answer, it is all pretty politically charged, the Supreme Court can kind of do whatever it wants, and I have no real model of what it will want. I could not tell you the probability that Kalshi will win and get to continue offering sports bets.
So, out of muscle memory, I fire up Kalshi to check that probability. "Supreme Court Will Rule Kalshi Sports Bets Are Legal, Yes/No," where is it? But Kalshi doesn't list that contract![1] Here's "A Kalshi Contract on the Legality of Kalshi Contracts," by Joseph Grundfest:
'This note proposes that Kalshi list a "Kalshi Sports Legality" contract indexed to the outcome of United States Supreme Court litigation addressing whether Kalshi's sports-indexed contracts are federally regulated in a manner that preempts state law. Kalshi has previously listed at least 16 contracts indexed to Supreme Court determinations. No rule or regulation prevents Kalshi from listing the proposed contract. The proposed contract would provide a market estimate of the probability that the Supreme Court rules that Kalshi's sports-indexed contracts are legal. The contract would thereby create valuable hedging opportunities for Kalshi investors. It would also create hedging value for Kalshi customers who might lose access to Kalshi markets. These hedging rationales are more substantial than rationales Kalshi presents to support other Kalshi contracts, such as contracts indexed to parlays or to specific in-game events, such as whether the first play in a football game leads to a touchdown.'
I mean, sure, of course. You and I and Joseph Grundfest can propose sarcastic Kalshi event contracts, but Kalshi doesn't have to list them. Hypotheticals!
If Kalshi listed this contract, and it traded in reasonable volume and showed a [90%][10%] probability of Kalshi winning, would that make it [more][less] likely that Kalshi actually would win? Would the prediction market implied probability affect the outcome? Would talented appellate lawyers look at the market and think "oh Kalshi is definitely going to [win][lose], so I should join [their][the other] legal team"? Would the Supreme Court justices, or their clerks, look at this market and think "ah, the smart money is that Kalshi will [win][lose], so that's probably right?" People have concerns like this about prediction markets on elections: A prediction market showing one candidate winning might drive money and attention and support to that candidate and become self-fulfilling. And here is a Wall Street Journal article about the effects of prediction markets on juries: "If millions are wagered on the belief that a defendant will be acquitted," it asks, "could that make a jury more reluctant to convict?" I don't think that the Supreme Court exactly works like that, but on the other hand the Supreme Court, like an election or a jury, is a mechanism for aggregating the votes of several humans, so maybe it works a little like that.
If it did work like that, and it showed a 10% probability of Kalshi winning, would Kalshi delist the contract? (Does the lack of this contract suggest something about its expected probability?)
If it did work like that, and it showed a 10% probability of Kalshi winning, could Kalshi, you know, buy a bunch of this contract and push its probability up?
All that aside, if Kalshi listed this contract, could it hedge its sports gambling risk by betting against itself on its own market?
Discuss!"
I do agree that prediction markets are BS gambling pretending to be something else.
But factually, SCOTUS does have authority over the application of the supremacy clause. At some point they will send federal agents in and enforce it themselves.
According to the article, Kalshi paid Trump a $3 million bribe. Do we have any idea what bribes the Republican Supreme Court Justices have taken from Kalshi?
No, the supreme court. End of the day this is a commerce clause question. Good chance even if congress fully legalizes all this supreme court could over rule that.
> End of the day this is a commerce clause question
It really isn’t. Nobody is challenging the federal government’s authority in the matter. Just whether the CFTC is reading statute correctly.
The Congress could choose to regulate or legalize prediction markets. It hasn’t. It created laws for exempted commodities with Dodd-Frank and the CFTC and Trump sort of ran with that.
I'm against government regulation of gambling in principle but in reality, they have an uphill battle trying to convince any reasonable person that 'its platform offers “swaps” that can only be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Exchange (CFTC)'.
These betting marketplaces that take any proposition are either dealing in gambling or futures and derivatives trading. So if they don't fall under gambling laws and regulations, they can deal with the SEC digging into their businesses instead. They might want to pick their battles.
> CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats
In ordinary times when the CFTC is just regulating things like pork belly futures, sure. But crypto and sports gambling are extremely politicized and red-coded now; Kalshi shouldn't expect the same sleepy regulation for them as for ordinary commodities.
Honestly I don't see their endgame. Even if they win these cases in court and fall under CFTC jurisdiction, that only matters if they have friendlies in the White House and the next administration will have knives out for them.
do business as long as possible and adapt to the next strongman, like in every other country?
nobody in business cares that the people are married to “due process” to respect the edicts, versus some other governance structure. just delay and adapt is the whole game. the corporation is a conduit to flow revenue to board, executives and functionally shareholders (but dividends are now uncommon). The corporation can become a husk if it fails to adapt and that wont be the current people’s problem if they have extracted substantial wealth out before then
Ninth circuit case, second circuit case, and third circuit case are all different outcomes because they are judging state laws in federal courts, different states within their respective circuit
I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit
Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws
But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states
perhaps, enough people are annoyed at the distortion to sports advertising and their friend’s behaviors that they could get some republican senators support for the 60 vote threshold
otherwise Democrats are still without power to unilaterally pass laws
have there been any proposals to deal with this? bills that didnt make it out of committee?
something as simple as adding some contracts to the ban in the onion futures act I think is a mistake
The only things that should qualify as interstate commerce are physical goods being transported between states, over land or water.
If we're stuck with endemic gun violence because of an 18th century definition of "well regulated militia" then there's no way a purely online marketplace counts as interstate commerce. How do you fit that on a horse, exactly?
> interstate commerce are physical goods being transported between states, over land or water
Okay, so digital marketplaces aren't interstate commerce? Try again. Insurance markets? In what reality is "commerce" defined as exclusively-physical goods?
> well regulated militia
Anyone that spouts this immediately signals their lack of English knowledge, law insight, etc. Even RBG didn't attempt this argument because it's literally, obviously invalid.
> In what reality is "commerce" defined as exclusively-physical goods?
The reality of pre-industrial America circa the writing of the Constitution, which we have decided defines the limit of interpreting the language in that document.
If we're going to do that with guns we should be consistent and do that with everything. Non-physical goods didn't exist back then, the founders didn't know what an internet was, therefore online "commerce" doesn't exist as far as the constitution is concerned.
>Anyone that spouts this immediately signals their lack of English knowledge, law insight, etc. Even RBG didn't attempt this argument because it's literally incorrect.
> The reality of pre-industrial America circa the writing of the Constitution, which we have decided defines the limit of interpreting the language in that document. ... Non-physical goods didn't exist back then
Did insurance markets and stock markets not exist back then? The Dutch East India Company is almost 200 years older than the United States.
Insurance and stocks were not subject to the Interstate Commerce clause until the 19th and 20th century, and the Dutch East India company dealt in physical goods, which is what I was talking about.
The Dutch East India Company's ownership was traded internationally... on a stock market. "Non-physical goods didn't exist back then"
> Why the fuck can't you read?
I'm not the one throwing "well-regulated militia" out as a serious argument (as if prefatory clauses somehow change the remainder of a sentence.) Why the fuck can't you read? Perhaps you should volunteer to be on the door-to-door confiscation squads.
James Madison who wrote the first damn draft of the commerce clause doesn't agree with you.
Not only was he was alive to see it applied to transportation services by SCOTUS in Gibbons v. Ogden, 7 years after he left the presidency -- in letters, he was arguing that congress should regulate shipping.
each article and amendment are evaluated independently, and at different times by different people. the different people only take up a handful of evaluations every year
so thats easy to square.
good news, the current Supreme Court has expressed interest in re-evaluating the New Deal era interpretations of the interstate commerce clause, in a way that could completely obliterate the Federal state and all of its agencies of the last 100 years
I don’t think anyone is seriously contesting the Congress’s power to regulate prediction markets. The question is whether it has.
The CFTC relied on rules about exempted commodities to grant itself the power to license the likes of Kalshi. The question is whether that’s a major question.
The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing. If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, inflation data, and stock market indices?
Don't be obtuse. Kalshi and Polymarket are 100% gambling. You don't need a PhD to see that.
Yes, but I interpret the comment to mean that stock trading isn't that much different
Financial assets, and especially stocks, are instruments to trade something of financial value.
You can also use the prediction markets to hedge in different channels
I could hedge it at the blackjack table too -- that doesn't make a blackjack hand a financial asset. I'm talking about whether the instrument itself is backed by something of inherent value.
You could buy a stock expecting asset appreciation, but the stock itself is a certificate of ownership in a business. Even a derivative of this, like options trading, is a contract to buy or sell or deliver said certificate of ownership in a business. Ultimately it is backed by something of tangible value.
"Predictions markets" are all of the mechanics of trading, but without any underlying value. It is literally gambling wearing Groucho glasses. The bet is simply for the sake of the bet.
Stock trading isn't gambling. It's just owning assets that can change in value. Options trading is much closer to gambling, and I would say the biggest difference between it and Kalshi and similar gambling companies is that it's much more rigorously (if nowhere near perfectly) regulated.
Stock trading has become gambling in the last 3 decades.
There is now effectively little to no difference.
Both have risk associated with them yes, one has oversight from the goverment and the other is a game / world event.
With stocks if I try to do insider trading I run the risk of Jail time. Or if I try to do a Pump and Dump scheme, I go to jail. If I am an person and I "place a bet on polymarket/kalshi" and then go and influence that outcome. It may not be illegal. Since these markets commodify literally any event, its impossible to control the items themselves. So the markets need to be controlled.
Prediction markets are overseen by the CFTC.
But oversight from the government could change tomorrow. The definition of something shouldn't hinge on what the government thinks it is. The government's definition should be based in something meaningful.
One is betting on downstream outcomes whereas another is betting on specific events.
The differences between "gambling on sports" and "a contract on the end results of a sports game" is the same as the difference between "driving a car" and a sovereign citizen's "traveling in a conveyance". You are playing semantic games for what are the same substance. You are conflating the issue of sports gambling (which is what the law suit is about) with interest rates and saying that it's all gambling/stock market. It's not cute or logical.
>If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions,
Easy. Financial instruments are used to tune the resource allocation in capitalism. Gambling however is used to have fun with an idea of getting free money. As such, one is at odds with the religious beliefs based on not having fun for no good reason.
Are you actually asking, or sea-lioning? I can't imagine anyone comparing these two whom has even a cursory understand of financial markets and gambling. Unless one has interests in gambling companies? Or do you gamble a lot and want to keep it legal? Why frame your question this way? Judge gambling on its merits, for which there clearly isn't any outside of entertainment.
Like, at least try to put effort to the comment to show you thought about it beyond the obvious propaganda of gambling companies. What, specifically, is the same? Why arent the differences important?
The apps know who the whales are. They make up 90% of their revenue. Ban them from taking money from whales, and the problem evaporates back to harmless $20 fun.
How to do this? Demand proof of income or assets and rent above $2000 in bets made in one year. Then audit these companies to ensure they are banning problem gamblers. If they are gambling or losing more than 5% of their net worth/income, that is a whale and they need to be play within their limits or get banned.
This is trivial to do, including at casinos. No one wants to do this because those companies have interests and that means their $100B+ scam industry is gone.
I didn’t read anything after you said sealioning but please stop accusing people of sealioning, and look up the definition while you’re at it too.
Having worked briefly in ads targeting, a big issue you'll face is that for every whale for whom this is a massive life problem, there's a whale who is just ~rich and this is their hobby.
I actually had a colleague who was a whale. Spent about $30k/yr on mobile games. He was staff level and made like $350k, single guy, so while it was hard for me to understand, it's also hard to say he was being duped or something. He just really liked the games, liked cosmetics, and liked to "support the devs".
These whales will be pissed if you ban them. Why should they be banned from their hobby because someone else can't be personally responsible?
> there's a whale who is just ~rich
The GP said "Demand proof of income or assets", so a 'whale' for whom $3000 a week is pocket change would still be free to squander it. There are already laws which require individual investors in private startups to show $1M in assets but online sports books and casinos are largely free to prey on gambling addicts.
These companies post little notices like "Addicted to Gambling? Click here for help" but then relentlessly optimize dark patterns in their apps to target and trigger addicts. Search and you'll find lots of documented evidence of shockingly abusive tactics.
Will never happen because state lotteries depend on whales just like all other gambling operations. You think the guy at the Quick-E-Mart buying $200 of scratch-off or Powerball tickets has enough income to call that harmless fun?
What was the point of the first two paragraphs? Can you please edit your comment to remove them? They’re not helpful and don’t add anything to the discussion - this is not a venue through which to spread your vitriol
Even if we concede that, Kalshi and Polymarket need to be better regulated with actual laws associated with it, as opposed to the quasi-wild-west thing we have now. I will acknowledge that a lot of trading isn't significantly different than gambling, at least with trading when you do things to purposefully manipulate the market or gamble with non-public information, there's at least an SEC that can investigate, sue, and/or arrest. I'm not claiming it's perfect, but at least there's an attempt to make the markets more fair.
It doesn't really seem like Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly the same regulation. There are plenty of cases where people are purposefully betting on the market when they can easily manipulate the results, with little/no consequences.
I mean, Polymarket ran this ad during the World Series that all but encouraged using the platform to trade on insider information: https://youtu.be/x6I-ZS8hZUg
I guess the thin veneer of deniability here is that the whistleblower isn’t shown actively trading on the information lol.
Holy shit, they're not even trying to hide it. These companies suck.
Stocks are backed by something real (in general). There's a business. That business can't just manufacture new stock out of thin air without going through a regulatory process to do so and the total number of shares is publicly known.
Furthermore the institutions that allow you to trade mostly aren't taking positions on the stock price and in theory there are jail-time consequences if they cheat. In practice that isn't always the case but at least there is some limit to what they can do to screw over their customers.
These contract markets have absolutely none of that. If they decide to take up positions to stuff their own pockets you probably wouldn't even know it and it wouldn't be illegal either. They can make up contracts for anything and everything without limit. If they aren't front-running their own customers then they're idiots because that's free money. And they can just lie about the odds as they like so if bets aren't going the way they want just tip the scales.
Oh and they have absolute control over whether any event counts as success or not and how to handle edge cases. There's no one you can appeal to.
Maybe they operate above-board in all aspects. Maybe they don't. No one really knows.
Are weather derivatives backed by something real?
IDK of anything more backing the derivatives than the funds of the bettors, and the guy with the hot-air gun heating up the official thermometer at the Paris airport... [0]
[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-paris-weather-bet...
Seasonal bets on regional weather are a way for farm and energy businesses to hedge against volatility from unusual weather.
If you're holding Florida grapefruit futures, hedging against an early freeze is an economic trade on the future value of a real thing.
For the avoidance of all doubt, gambling, crypto, stock market trading and forex are exactly the same thing.
You make an interesting point, I think it boils down to two primary distinctions:
1. Purpose: derivatives serve primarily as risk management instruments. Gambling serves pure profit and entertainment.
2. Topics: derivatives focus financial assets, commodities and economic risk. Gambling focuses on micro, generally sports, events.
Obviously you could make an argument that both instruments can be used for both purposes.
If I'm a worker at a football team who's job depends on my team qualifying to the Uefa Champions League, betting on my team not making it can be considered risk management.
In the same fashion futures on oil prices can be equally used for pure profit and entertainment purposes.
> betting on my team not making it can be considered risk management.
This is the ideal, yes. But I'd bet about 99% do the opposite and double their risk by betting on their preferred outcome.
Also, betting on something you have control over introduces perverse incentives. It's easier to sabotage an effort than make it succeed.
> If I'm a worker at a football team
In the large US professional sports leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB), it's not uncommon for some of the most long-term losing teams to be the most financially profitable.
In the case of the NFL, the league itself is owned equally by each of the 32 teams. They each get a 1/32nd share of league revenue regardless of win/loss. While many costs like player contracts are capped, other costs (like coach contracts) aren't. Since the majority of income is equally split, one way to max profits is to spend less than other teams where they can.
While some choose to engage in equity & commodity trading in a way which is like gambling, that's a secondary use of an economic exchange which still fundamentally results in the transfer of an asset tied to something other than itself.
From the days of "My six sheep for your two cows" to modern derivatives, asset trading markets are useful and necessary for economic exchange, price setting and market clearing in a way that self-referential 'poker chips' are not.
Because financial instruments like stocks are contracts entitling you to future cash flows from the legal entity that issued the stock, and federal securities laws mandate strict disclosure about that entity.
Yes, their value fluctuates on the market from lots of different factors. But the thing you're buying is very real and very well regulated compared to a prediction bet.
"to future cash flows from the legal entity that issued the stock"
In practice, they don't work like that anymore and you get the majority of the value by buying/selling the stock to another party.
Stocks have effectively degraded into gambling style instruments.
> differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing
In part, in part not. Insurance and gambling are inherently similar—they’re both negative-sum games taken alone. (Insurance can become positive sum when one considers what one is protecting.) Investing and gambling are fundamentally different—the former is a positive-sum game.
That doesn’t mean you can’t gamble in the stock-market. Options are, for a non-hedging buyer, negative sum. Someone day trading meme stocks, similarly, would be expected to lose their money in the long run. On the other side, a professional poker player may be able to play a gambling game as a non-gambler.
So no, differences aren’t blurring. But awareness is, and companies like Kalshi are predating on that.
> The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing.
That may just mean you don’t understand the regulations and legal definitions involved. Shares of stock are portions of a company entitling the owner to dividends and possibly influence over company direction. Do shares on Kalshi represent a portion of a company and entitle you to a dividend?
No. So the line remains clear: You are allowed to trade stock as long as you follow the stock trading rules. You are not allowed to trade “Kalshi market shares” unless the rules change. You can say that they should change, but there’s no confusion about what is stock and what is illegal gambling.
Kalshi could perhaps try to list their company on the stock exhange and have the market shares become actual stock somehow, but they’d quickly run afoul of the stock trading rules if they tried to give larger dividends to some shareholders than others based on which markets they’d invested in. It would become an impossible headache, which is why they won’t do it.
What are the odds they win vs lose?
I've seen plenty of lawsuits and dirt specifically on Kalshi, but have yet to see one on Polymarket. Is there anything specific states have against Kalshi over other prediction markets, or are they just the first/most prominent of what will be a wave of lawsuits against these kinds of companies generally?
Polymarket didn't serve the US last I checked, unless they've changed recently.
Ah, makes sense. I've never bothered looking into using either so I wasn't aware of that.
Polymarket does. In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors. It also increases the odds that if you make money you'll actually be able to withdraw it unlike many of these markets. They also operate in actual dollars not make up crypto tokens.
Note that Polymarket's non-US business is crypto blockchain whatever so ... good luck with that. The ability to get your money out could disappear at any time and as far as I know there's no recourse if they just decide to screw you over. Not that CFTC is super effective but it is something.
> In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors
So is Kalshi. The entire question is how the CFTC made up the authority to regulate gambling out of statute that only ever mentions exempted commodities.
They do: polymarket.us
They do nothing to block US people from signing up to polymarket.com, the block is a farce
I think it might have something to do with the fact that Kalshi is aggressively running ads targeting young men to get them into sports gambling, and Polymarket isn't. (I've never seen them, but my less-technical brother claims he sees them all the time on tiktok and they're particularly sleazy).
Also, more to the point, Polymarket actually does have at least three active lawsuits against it.
edit: looks like this has something to do with it:
> Kalshi has been a CFTC-regulated exchange since 2020. Polymarket exited the US in 2022 after settling charges with the CFTC, and only came back after buying QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, in late 2025.
Yes it’s strange, both have hired Donald Trump Jr. as advisor. You’d think they’d both be safe.
In some cases, Kalshi brought the lawsuit against the state(s). Others, where the state(s) initiated the action, name Kalshi and not Polymarket because only Kalshi is operating (legally) in US. Polymarket doesn't offer as many markets on its US-facing entity as it does on its main international site, and not exactly sure but I believe they have not included many of the markets on their US site that are causing Kalshi issues here.
The main thing getting Kalshi all the attention from the states is their sports gambling markets. Not sure if polymarket offers those to US.
“Donald Trump Jr was handed about $300,000 worth of equity in Kalshi after joining the prediction market platform as a strategic adviser in early 2025” [1].
If you’re in a state with a Democrat AG which is also pursuing Kalshi in court, look up your state’s bribery laws and see if your AG can open an investigation into criminal conduct under state law.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/f70147b1-ee77-4d75-8587-707a49ddb...
If their lawyers are at all competent, they structured it so it's not illegal (though it's pretty obviously adjacent to bribery). With both houses of Congress turning blue, I 'predict' they'll dump Don Jr by the end of January to claw back the remaining unvested equity.
Hey, maybe we can get that listed as a bet!
I mean, prediction markets are gambling by all accounts, so this should have been expected no? On a personal level I'm really hoping this is the end of the massive rise in "swaps" over the last few years since it's been an obnoxious trend.
The Supreme Court of The US has the final say on this.
The ultimate bet
Ironically couldn't find a market for it on either kalshi or polymarket
Matt Levine wrote about this very thing in a recent Money Stuff (October 12):
"Kalshi gaming regulation
You know what's funny? There is a real legal dispute about whether Kalshi and other prediction markets should be allowed to offer sports bets without complying with state gaming laws. Kalshi and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission take the view that (1) Kalshi is federally regulated by the CFTC, (2) sports bets are "swaps" under federal regulation, (3) federal regulation preempts state gaming regulation, so (4) buzz off, states. Many states disagree, and there has been litigation around the country. (We have talked about this several times.)
Two federal appellate courts have sided with the states, but another has sided with Kalshi. The state that lost that last case (New Jersey) is asking the Supreme Court to review it, and last week 39 states filed a brief supporting New Jersey's request. So did the National Football League. I assume that the Supreme Court will take the case. I have no idea what it will decide. I think this is a tough question, courts have disagreed on the answer, it is all pretty politically charged, the Supreme Court can kind of do whatever it wants, and I have no real model of what it will want. I could not tell you the probability that Kalshi will win and get to continue offering sports bets.
So, out of muscle memory, I fire up Kalshi to check that probability. "Supreme Court Will Rule Kalshi Sports Bets Are Legal, Yes/No," where is it? But Kalshi doesn't list that contract![1] Here's "A Kalshi Contract on the Legality of Kalshi Contracts," by Joseph Grundfest:
'This note proposes that Kalshi list a "Kalshi Sports Legality" contract indexed to the outcome of United States Supreme Court litigation addressing whether Kalshi's sports-indexed contracts are federally regulated in a manner that preempts state law. Kalshi has previously listed at least 16 contracts indexed to Supreme Court determinations. No rule or regulation prevents Kalshi from listing the proposed contract. The proposed contract would provide a market estimate of the probability that the Supreme Court rules that Kalshi's sports-indexed contracts are legal. The contract would thereby create valuable hedging opportunities for Kalshi investors. It would also create hedging value for Kalshi customers who might lose access to Kalshi markets. These hedging rationales are more substantial than rationales Kalshi presents to support other Kalshi contracts, such as contracts indexed to parlays or to specific in-game events, such as whether the first play in a football game leads to a touchdown.'
I mean, sure, of course. You and I and Joseph Grundfest can propose sarcastic Kalshi event contracts, but Kalshi doesn't have to list them. Hypotheticals!
If Kalshi listed this contract, and it traded in reasonable volume and showed a [90%][10%] probability of Kalshi winning, would that make it [more][less] likely that Kalshi actually would win? Would the prediction market implied probability affect the outcome? Would talented appellate lawyers look at the market and think "oh Kalshi is definitely going to [win][lose], so I should join [their][the other] legal team"? Would the Supreme Court justices, or their clerks, look at this market and think "ah, the smart money is that Kalshi will [win][lose], so that's probably right?" People have concerns like this about prediction markets on elections: A prediction market showing one candidate winning might drive money and attention and support to that candidate and become self-fulfilling. And here is a Wall Street Journal article about the effects of prediction markets on juries: "If millions are wagered on the belief that a defendant will be acquitted," it asks, "could that make a jury more reluctant to convict?" I don't think that the Supreme Court exactly works like that, but on the other hand the Supreme Court, like an election or a jury, is a mechanism for aggregating the votes of several humans, so maybe it works a little like that. If it did work like that, and it showed a 10% probability of Kalshi winning, would Kalshi delist the contract? (Does the lack of this contract suggest something about its expected probability?)
If it did work like that, and it showed a 10% probability of Kalshi winning, could Kalshi, you know, buy a bunch of this contract and push its probability up?
All that aside, if Kalshi listed this contract, could it hedge its sports gambling risk by betting against itself on its own market? Discuss!"
Great, the most corrupt court ever.
Samuel Chase has entered the chat
The Supreme Court has no say over a state choosing to ban gambling.
Except that the Supreme Court does have a say over whether or not the Supreme Court has a say over a state choosing to ban gambling.
I do agree that prediction markets are BS gambling pretending to be something else.
But factually, SCOTUS does have authority over the application of the supremacy clause. At some point they will send federal agents in and enforce it themselves.
What is the Supremacy Clause?
What is stare decisis?
An invented doctrine not codified anywhere in written law.
Which decision is relevant?
The case would be on CFTC authority vs state authority.
You’d be hard pressed to argue that states should be individually able to control futures trading
You’d be similarly hard pressed to read the CFTC magicking gambling authority as anything but a major question.
According to the article, Kalshi paid Trump a $3 million bribe. Do we have any idea what bribes the Republican Supreme Court Justices have taken from Kalshi?
No, the Congress does.
No, the supreme court. End of the day this is a commerce clause question. Good chance even if congress fully legalizes all this supreme court could over rule that.
> End of the day this is a commerce clause question
It really isn’t. Nobody is challenging the federal government’s authority in the matter. Just whether the CFTC is reading statute correctly.
The Congress could choose to regulate or legalize prediction markets. It hasn’t. It created laws for exempted commodities with Dodd-Frank and the CFTC and Trump sort of ran with that.
I'm against government regulation of gambling in principle but in reality, they have an uphill battle trying to convince any reasonable person that 'its platform offers “swaps” that can only be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Exchange (CFTC)'.
These betting marketplaces that take any proposition are either dealing in gambling or futures and derivatives trading. So if they don't fall under gambling laws and regulations, they can deal with the SEC digging into their businesses instead. They might want to pick their battles.
CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats
SEC is down for whatever right now too by the way
> CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats
In ordinary times when the CFTC is just regulating things like pork belly futures, sure. But crypto and sports gambling are extremely politicized and red-coded now; Kalshi shouldn't expect the same sleepy regulation for them as for ordinary commodities.
Honestly I don't see their endgame. Even if they win these cases in court and fall under CFTC jurisdiction, that only matters if they have friendlies in the White House and the next administration will have knives out for them.
do business as long as possible and adapt to the next strongman, like in every other country?
nobody in business cares that the people are married to “due process” to respect the edicts, versus some other governance structure. just delay and adapt is the whole game. the corporation is a conduit to flow revenue to board, executives and functionally shareholders (but dividends are now uncommon). The corporation can become a husk if it fails to adapt and that wont be the current people’s problem if they have extracted substantial wealth out before then
There is a bitcoin futures contract on the CME and its been there since 2017.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bi...
https://www.fxcm.com/markets/insights/bitcoin-futures-produc...
Ninth circuit case, second circuit case, and third circuit case are all different outcomes because they are judging state laws in federal courts, different states within their respective circuit
I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit
Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws
But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states
Unless Congress now acts
perhaps, enough people are annoyed at the distortion to sports advertising and their friend’s behaviors that they could get some republican senators support for the 60 vote threshold
otherwise Democrats are still without power to unilaterally pass laws
have there been any proposals to deal with this? bills that didnt make it out of committee?
something as simple as adding some contracts to the ban in the onion futures act I think is a mistake
Some of the states that have issues with Kalshi are red, e.g Utah. There’s a serious states rights issue here as well.
> There’s a serious states rights issue here as well.
Of all of the ridiculous things that qualify as interstate commerce: prediction, futures, and derivatives markets are squarely within the definition.
The only things that should qualify as interstate commerce are physical goods being transported between states, over land or water.
If we're stuck with endemic gun violence because of an 18th century definition of "well regulated militia" then there's no way a purely online marketplace counts as interstate commerce. How do you fit that on a horse, exactly?
> interstate commerce are physical goods being transported between states, over land or water
Okay, so digital marketplaces aren't interstate commerce? Try again. Insurance markets? In what reality is "commerce" defined as exclusively-physical goods?
> well regulated militia
Anyone that spouts this immediately signals their lack of English knowledge, law insight, etc. Even RBG didn't attempt this argument because it's literally, obviously invalid.
> In what reality is "commerce" defined as exclusively-physical goods?
The reality of pre-industrial America circa the writing of the Constitution, which we have decided defines the limit of interpreting the language in that document.
If we're going to do that with guns we should be consistent and do that with everything. Non-physical goods didn't exist back then, the founders didn't know what an internet was, therefore online "commerce" doesn't exist as far as the constitution is concerned.
>Anyone that spouts this immediately signals their lack of English knowledge, law insight, etc. Even RBG didn't attempt this argument because it's literally incorrect.
And yet, DC vs. Heller.
> The reality of pre-industrial America circa the writing of the Constitution, which we have decided defines the limit of interpreting the language in that document. ... Non-physical goods didn't exist back then
Did insurance markets and stock markets not exist back then? The Dutch East India Company is almost 200 years older than the United States.
Insurance and stocks were not subject to the Interstate Commerce clause until the 19th and 20th century, and the Dutch East India company dealt in physical goods, which is what I was talking about.
Why the fuck can't you read?
The Dutch East India Company's ownership was traded internationally... on a stock market. "Non-physical goods didn't exist back then"
> Why the fuck can't you read?
I'm not the one throwing "well-regulated militia" out as a serious argument (as if prefatory clauses somehow change the remainder of a sentence.) Why the fuck can't you read? Perhaps you should volunteer to be on the door-to-door confiscation squads.
>I'm not the one throwing "well-regulated militia" out as a serious argument (as if prefatory clauses somehow change the remainder of a sentence.)
Take it up with the Supreme Court then.
I'll keep machining away, good luck with your facially-incorrect theories!
Interstate commercial services absolutely existed at the founding of the US, e.g: labor, transportation, banking, etc.
Labor is a commercial service that has existed back to prehistoric times.
Ultimately, it seems you are arguing originalism, which is an opinion of interpretation that a minority of justices hold.
I'm not arguing that services didn't exist.
I'm arguing that the Interstate Commerce clause was originally intended to apply to physical goods being transported across state lines.
You could transport physical money across state lines. You couldn't transport "a banking" across state lines.
You could transport horses, humans and machines. You couldn't transport "a labor."
Every one of these things comes down to some physical item that could be taxed as it crossed a border. That was the entire point of it.
So "data" and "information" don't count. Nothing exists that actually crosses state lines.
James Madison who wrote the first damn draft of the commerce clause doesn't agree with you.
Not only was he was alive to see it applied to transportation services by SCOTUS in Gibbons v. Ogden, 7 years after he left the presidency -- in letters, he was arguing that congress should regulate shipping.
https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/99-02-02-154...
each article and amendment are evaluated independently, and at different times by different people. the different people only take up a handful of evaluations every year
so thats easy to square.
good news, the current Supreme Court has expressed interest in re-evaluating the New Deal era interpretations of the interstate commerce clause, in a way that could completely obliterate the Federal state and all of its agencies of the last 100 years
“omg I love SCOTUS now?”
I don’t think anyone is seriously contesting the Congress’s power to regulate prediction markets. The question is whether it has.
The CFTC relied on rules about exempted commodities to grant itself the power to license the likes of Kalshi. The question is whether that’s a major question.
Yeah, and gambling has a clear precedent for state (and tribal) right to regulate.
The question at hand here isn’t either of our points. The question is whether or not prediction markets are gambling with lipstick on.
Why do the same five people end up at the World Series of Poker final table every year?
Probably the reason the president's son is on the board of Kalshi, pure coincidence.