No horsing around here, just money math that says interest rates on debt sunk into datacenters will far outstrip the most optimistic revenue projections as of 2028-29-ish, when the bulk of the debt will come a-calling.
Also, inverse Pascal's Wager, because horse v/s motorcar is a false dichotomy... they are bound by the same laws of physics (faster horse, less shit, more noise and more smoke), merely different economic realities.
Hyperscaler bet is "Superintelligence" and/or "AGI", or we will make a God. That is a technological singularity. There will be a "before God" and "after God" world, and we will very likely never be able to understand what the AGI/Superintelligence's world looks like. (Because to understand what it is like to be a bat, you have to become the bat, but at that point your meaning of "understanding" itself changes entirely).
So I believe ten trillion dollars and a bunch of pirated books and source repos, and well pirated everything, mostly of very dubious quality and provenance, will not result in a God. I've been acting accordingly.
just money math that says interest rates on debt sunk into datacenters will far outstrip the most optimistic revenue projections as of 2028-29-ish, when the bulk of the debt will come a-calling.
Right, the implication is that the global economy will continue to spend $30T/year on human cognitive labor, but spending, what $1T a year for superintelligent AI will be too much to swallow.
Cars will be so low-margin and commoditized that car companies go bust, and everyone will stick with horses.
Actually, that happened... horseless carriage company stocks are dogwater, and have been for decades.
Indeed, the entire car business first boomed, and then has continued to exist only because oil is massively subsidized. If they suddenly started pricing in the fully-loaded cost of oil into retail prices, the cheapest way to own an all-electric (forget IC engine) would be to drive it home from the shop, park it in the driveway, and set it on fire.
Come to think of it, Happenings in Hormuz is doing some of that to everyone now.
Detroit is not the city of dreams it used to be. Hasn't been for a long time.
Datacenter subsidies will burn out faster. What will remain is industrial capacity to manufacture really _really_ fast computers, at a huge enough volume, to become "commodity android devices for the common person" --- I'm betting on that.